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‘The deal pipeline is strong’ for lawyers in 2025
BigLaw partners are optimistic about the coming 12 months, citing an anticipated uptick in M&A activity.
Jerome Doraisamy
Last week, a handful of partners reflected on their participation in the $24 billion acquisition of AirTrunk by Blackstone and CPP Investments. That transaction was the biggest acquisition deal conducted in Australia in 2024 and amounted to the second-largest private capital merger and acquisition deal in Australian history and the largest-ever data centre deal globally.
Looking ahead to the rest of 2025, dealmakers at some of Australia’s biggest law firms are optimistic about market conditions and what it means for legal work.
A ‘record year’ on the cards?
In conversation with Lawyers Weekly, MinterEllison partner Kate Koidl noted that following the softer market conditions of recent years, “the deal pipeline is strong”, and her firm anticipates a “significant uptick” in M&A activity in 2025. Herbert Smith Freehills partner Michael Ziegelaar also expects “increased” M&A activity in this 12-month cycle. Ben McLaughlin, of counsel at Baker McKenzie, is similarly optimistic this will be a “busy year (perhaps a record year) in M&A.
There are a plethora of reasons for such optimism from these dealmakers.
It is likely, Ziegelaar detailed, that there will be continued interest in cross-border M&A from North America, western Europe, and Japan, “and from well-capitalised Australian companies being prepared to do deals in overseas jurisdictions”. Koidl echoed this, noting that such foreign bidders – including also from South Korea and Singapore – “are actively seeking new opportunities in Australia”, particularly in the mining, energy, infrastructure, and logistics sectors.
Both Ziegelaar and Koidl also anticipate a need for private equity funds to exit long-held assets, with Koidl adding that the “non-traditional exit routes”, such as continuation funds and minority deals, will continue this year.
This private equity and private capital, Ashurst partner Neil Pathak mused, “driven in part by our growing pool of superannuation money”, is in strong supply, which – together with lower debt financing costs – should underpin buy-side demand.
On the buy-side, McLaughlin pointed out, “there is record dry powder”.
Moreover, McLaughlin and Ziegelaar said, buyers are keen to do deals this year to beat the 1 January 2026 start date for Australia’s merger reforms.
Finally, with interest rates set to decrease and global inflation starting to be tamed, there is collective reason for optimism.
Headwinds
Pathak was, on the whole, more circumspect about the potential for a significantly busier year, expressing cautious optimism, particularly in the first six months.
There are headwinds to navigate, he warned.
“Inflation in Australia not totally under control. The federal election in Q2 might cause a temporary dip in activity as potential acquirers pause to see the outcome of the election and because FIRB approvals can slow at this time with the government [going] into caretaker mode,” he said.
There is also, Pathak continued, an ever-increasing load of regulation to navigate.
“We have the recent competition/ACCC reforms coming into practice in the second half of 2025 before formally taking effect at the end of the year,” he said.
“It will be interesting to see if the ACCC can appropriately resource up to manage the increase in applications which will arise due to the mandatory notification requirements.”
This said, Pathak added there “are some excellent tailwinds” for the year ahead as well, including strong US growth sentiment with the Trump government, inflation subsiding, and interest rates trending downwards.
“The low [Aussie dollar] will make ASX listed targets and other Australian businesses attractive to foreign, particularly, US buyers,” he said.
Leadership
In the face of “this likely busy load”, there is an increased need, Ziegelaar opined, to “ensure that our teams are able to manage their workload and maintain a work/life balance whilst continuing to deliver exceptional client service”.
He has noticed, he mused, that in the past years, work has picked up significantly in the second half of the calendar year, “and it is therefore important to plan and resource for that”.
“We are also trialling various AI and other technology initiatives like generative AI and technology developed to streamline legal drafting and due diligence to make our work more efficient for our clients and for our teams,” he said.
Jerome Doraisamy
Jerome Doraisamy is the editor of Lawyers Weekly and HR Leader. He has worked at Momentum Media as a journalist on Lawyers Weekly since February 2018, and has served as editor since March 2022. In June 2024, he also assumed the editorship of HR Leader. Jerome is also the author of The Wellness Doctrines book series, an admitted solicitor in NSW, and a board director of the Minds Count Foundation.
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